Election Update in the Swing States: Nevada

At this point in the election, only nine days until Election Day, Nevada is still leaning towards Clinton. According to the 2016 Election Forecast, by FiveThirtyEight, Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning Nevada’s six electoral votes is 62.2%, compared to Donald Trump’s chances of 37.8%.

In the past ten polls conducted thus far in October, Hillary Clinton has won five, Donald Trump has won four, and one ended in a tie. In the two most recent polls, Marist College, and Remington, Trump won by +3 and +2 respectively. Based on all of the polls taken in this campaign, they are able to simulate the possible outcome of the election 10,000 times to get the estimated, eventual, ending result.

Sources:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/

— Erin Miller

 

Current State of Arizona

Arizona has voted with the Republican Party nine times out of the last ten elections; the only time that it voted with the Democratic Party was in the 1996 election, where Bill Clinton won. At the end of September, when we first looked at the swing states, Clinton was trailing Trump in Arizona, though not by much.

Now however, in many of the polls taken in Arizona, Clinton is leading over Trump.  According to Real Clear Politics, her lead in the state was wider a few weeks ago, but has now decreased slightly.  Her lead in different polls varies from +.6 to +5, however, Real Clear Politics has her at a +.6 lead.  Michelle Obama has visited Arizona in the last few weeks, and Clinton is going there this week in an effort to win the state.

-Gina Gerard

North Carolina: Clinton and Trump fighting for the state

In the most recent polls done by the website FiveThirtyEight Clinton is currently up, but not by much. Just in this past week both Hillary and Bill Clinton have been down to North Carolina to campaign. Clinton is also receiving help campaigning in North Carolina from President Obama and his First Lady Michelle. On the other hand, Trump is using the reopening of the Clinton email case to his advantage. In several rallies he has stated that her email scandal is bigger than Watergate and that she should be locked up.Trump states that “justice must be done” and that Hillary is a threat to the safety of the United States of America.

While Trump seems to be residing well with voters who want change and more jobs, he has lost many of the voters in big cities such as Charlotte, which is where Clinton has spend a lot of her time gaining supports and their votes. The help from Bill Clinton as well as the First Lady and the President is helping Clinton stay that small 3 percent above Trump in the polls. The race will continue neck and neck until the final votes on November 8th.

— Rachael McGuigan

Sources:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/

Georgia Holding Steady In Trump’s Favor

The swing state, Georgia, has maintained its “southern conservative” status throughout the entirety of this election. Even after the three Presidential debates aired, Georgia is still polling in the red. In an analysis of all the major polls in Georgia, Real Clear Politics shows Trump leading by a 2.8 point margin. Although these polling numbers are closer to the middle ground than in past elections, the Republican Party seems to have a solid foothold in Georgia.

The highly consulted website FiveThrityEight has had Trump winning the state with as much as 80 percent certainty. These numbers are holding steady as he is now favored to win the state 3 to 1 or with 75 percent in his favor. Solidifying these sixteen electoral college votes will help Donald Trump in his quest for the presidency, but it may be a little too late with November 8th quickly approaching.  Although the climate of the state of Georgia has not changed throughout the course of this election, the climate of the nation certainly has.

—Rachel Pelsang

Current State of Pennsylvania

In the most recent poll, Trump lagged behind Clinton by 2 points only so the margin has gone down a lot in the past few months. Pennsylvania will be a very important state to win for the election. Most Trump supporters don’t believe he will win which makes them less inclined to vote in this state.

Trump still has most of the support in western Pennsylvania; however, Clinton had a 28 point advantage in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Despite this, pennsylvanians still have their doubts about Clinton and the percentage of African American support for her has decreased. After the lewd recording of Trump speaking though many in the state are voting for Gary Johnson.

—Monica Saleeb

 

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/Donald-Trump-getting-blown-out-in-the-Philadelphia-suburbs-as-Pennsylvania-drifts-out-of-reach.html

Current State of Colorado

A lot has happened in the month since we first looked at Colorado’s feeling toward the candidates. Not a lot has changed when one looks at the net position of the candidates.

The trends according to Realclearpolitics.com, show that Hillary Clinton is still holding a sizable lead over Donald Trump. Clinton had lost a lot of popularity in late September, where at one point Trump was polling about a percentage ahead of her, but she gained most of her favor back since then. Currently she is trending down, but holds a 6.8 percent lead of 45.8 to Trump’s 39 percent.

Reading headlines of the Denver post, it appears that neither candidate is being touted over the other. Comments about the sensation of new emails being uncovered in the Clinton email investigation and Trump criticizing the integrity of Colorado’s polls indicate that Colorado’s media at least, is critical of both candidates.

Does these polls show the whole picture? The answer is by all means “no.” With the pace of this election and all its surprises, who knows what will happen this week or next that will change the public’s views of the candidates. As always we will have to wait and see what this election throws at us.

—Sabrina Basile

 

New Mexico

As of this past week New Mexico is no longer a battleground state.  It has moved from leaning Clinton in recent weeks to being a safe Clinton state.  Because of this and recent election results New Mexico has lost its swing state status and overall is now considered a safe democratic state.

-Richard Carroll

 

 

Ohio

According to Politico,  the polls that have been taken in Ohio indicate that Donald Trump has a 1.2% polling lead over Hillary Clinton.  From the local polls, it is seeming that Ohio will be one of the few toss-up swing states that could go in favor of either candidate.  This figure is likely to increase or decrease due to the last-minute visits that Trump, the Vice Presidential candidates and party advocates are making to the swing state.

The Republican Party started the Ohio visits with Mike Pence appearing in Ashland, Marietta and Swanton on Tuesday. Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus were visited by Chelsea Clinton in support of her mother’s nomination.  Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate Tim Kaine is scheduled to make appearances in Cleveland and Columbus on Thursday.  Trump closes out the last-minute visit spree to Ohio in Springfield and Toledo.  The announcement of Jay-Z’s participation in the Get Out the Vote concert in Cleveland on the fourth of November could have a surprisingly positive influence on Clinton’s standings.  The proximity of the concert to the elections could be a determining factor for how Clinton fares in the battle for Ohio.

–Sophie Golden

 

Virginia’s growing support for Hillary Clinton

Quinnipiac University’s latest poll numbers for the state of Virginia has Clinton with a commanding lead of 50 compared to Trump at 38, according to WKTR news. This poll shows a significant change since the last poll, released on September 22nd, when Clinton had a narrow lead of 45 to Trump’s 39. The strong showing of support for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton is interesting when you consider Virginia’s historical support for the Republican party in presidential elections. Clinton’s growing lead against Trump is consistent with the national polling trends of voting preferences across the nation as the election approaches.

http://wtkr.com/2016/10/27/latest-quinnipiac-poll-says-clinton-is-running-away-in-virginia-polls-and-up-in-n-c/amp/

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2381

Michigan

In an article posted yesterday afternoon, Clinton now has a 6% lead over Trump, which is a significantly smaller margin than that of a month ago (when it was 11%). As of right now, the state looks like it will still remain Democrat in these last 12 days until the election.

After the second presidential debate, Clinton was leading with an 8% margin. According to Fox 2 News, Clinton lost the most votes to voters ages 18-44.

There are still 13% of voters who claim to be undecided, and these votes could impact the final outcome of the election. The Detroit Free Press says that Trump supporters argue that the state is still up for grabs, and that Clinton doesn’t have it in the bag just yet.

While there is good cause to believe that Hillary Clinton will win Michigan, anything is possible. People are urged to vote in these final days and on November 8.

–Carolyn Becker